MCX Crude - Wait & Watch Approach Justified. Now what ?
MCX Crude Oil – Wait & Watch Approach Justified
As on Sun 24 May 2026. CMP 9218
A month ago (23 April update), the view was deliberately cautious:
🟦 Best approach: Wait for clarity, not anticipation
🟦 This is a "prove it first" market, not a "predict and position" setup
🟦 You are not being paid to be early
Over the past month, Crude Oil has delivered exactly the type of environment we wanted to avoid — high volatility, conflicting signals and headline-driven swings both in India and globally.
So far, patience has been rewarded. Now what ?
Bottom Line
🟦 The call remains unchanged : There is still no structural clarity.
At present, 2 competing Elliott Wave hypotheses remain valid, and price must confirm which path is unfolding before capital is committed.
Both counts are shown below.
Primary Count (Preferred) : Bullish Triangle
The preferred interpretation remains a bullish triangle.
If correct, Crude would likely spend more time moving sideways to lower first, frustrating both bulls and bears, before eventually breaking higher in a final thrust to complete a larger degree advance.
Daily Chart
Potential bullish triangle in play.
This remains a market designed to create frustration — premature longs get shaken out, aggressive shorts get trapped.
🟦 Patience remains the edge.
3 Day Chart : 2 Potential Long Opportunities
If the primary count is correct, two opportunities could emerge:
🔹 Wave E completion → Short term bullish trade
Completion of wave E (of 4) could produce a thrust higher to complete wave 5 of i.
This would likely be a tactical opportunity rather than the larger move.
🔹 Wave ii completion → Larger trend opportunity
The larger setup would emerge if price completes wave ii, opening the door for a strong wave iii advance.
Longer term upside projections can be refined if and when price confirms the pattern.
🟦 No confirmation = No trade.
Alternate Count (Equally Deserving Of Respect)
The alternate view cannot be dismissed.
The rally from 4724 → 10,990 has, so far, unfolded in 3 waves rather than 5.
If this interpretation is correct, 10,990 may already represent a completed wave B, implying the possibility of a much larger corrective decline.
3 Day Chart
Under this count, Crude could be tracing a larger flat correction, with wave C of 2 potentially pulling price materially lower before the next major opportunity emerges.
Key Takeaway
🟦 This remains a decision point market, not a prediction market.
The objective is not to forecast first.
The objective is to identify structure, wait for confirmation and act only when probability shifts clearly in our favour.
🟦 Wait. Watch. Let Crude reveal its hand first.
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